Climate Models and Uncertainty

• This resource on the uncertainty of climate models includes a lesson plan, a podcast, a game on adaptation and risk, discussion questions, and abridged excerpts from the IPCC's AR5 Summary for Policymakers.
• Students will learn how scientists quantify and think about uncertainty, especially in the context of climate models. 

Positives

• The game allows students to create an adaptation plan for a coastal city and test the plan in several randomized scenarios.
• The podcast guest, MIT professor Kerry Emanuel, describes the complexity of global systems and climate models using terms and metaphors that are easy to understand.

Additional Prerequisites

• Students should be familiar with some of the impacts of rising temperatures including sea level rise, desertification, and disruptions in our global food systems.

Differentiation

• Students can make this topic relatable by thinking about times in their own life when they've had to assess probability, risks, and uncertainty. 
• Students can look at climate models and assess the areas of uncertainty using resources like this climate simulation.
• To learn more about uncertainty and climate risks, students can explore this lesson on risk.

This resource addresses the listed standards. To fully meet standards, search for more related resources.