Report: Coming Decades to Bring Stronger, More Damaging Storms

Inland states might have to weather hurricanes in coming decades, a new report finds. The data also suggests parts of the East Coast will face more storms in the future. Those storms will likely be big ones.  

The nonprofit First Street Foundation worked with Kerry Emanuel from MIT to predict hurricanes over the next 30 years. They looked at historical data, climate change, and sea warming trends. They also ran over 50,000 storm simulations. Here are some of their findings: 

Hurricanes will threaten more property: The study estimates that hurricanes will damage over 13 million properties that have never faced a major storm before.

Storms will hit harder: In 1980, the chance that a hurricane would reach Category 3 or higher upon landfall was 10%, according to NOAA. Today, it’s almost 40%. Storms are also more likely to maintain their size as they move over land. So, more states could face winds from hurricanes. 

Hurricanes are moving north: In the past, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas have seen most of the big hurricanes. They are Gulf Coast states. Now, states in the mid-Atlantic and New England will see more storms.  

The cost of damage will increase: First Street estimates that wind damage alone could cause the US $18.5 billion in damage each year. Flood damage will average over $200 billion a year. NOAA estimates that hurricanes caused almost $160 billion in damage in 2021.